Carbon Management: 5 Key Elements of a Robust Carbon Scenario – Part 3
Carbon modelling, often referred to as carbon accounting or carbon footprint analysis, is a systematic method for estimating and monitoring greenhouse gas emissions. This process captures the emissions generated and stored by both natural systems and human activities.
The key greenhouse gases involved — carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) — are significant contributors to climate change.
Carbon modelling involves identifying and quantifying sources of greenhouse gas emissions by gathering data on energy consumption and fuel use. This information is then processed using models and emission factors to estimate the resulting emissions.
Understanding how to effectively model scenarios is key to mitigating carbon management and chart a path to a sustainable future.
In part 3 of this series, we highlight 5 key elements of a well-modelled carbon scenario, providing companies with insights to anticipate challenges and make informed management decisions.
1. Drivers
Drivers are the common starting point. Think of a driver as either an internal or external factor that influences the impacts of the scenario, both to the organisation and to the external context. The most obvious drivers of carbon emission scenarios are the need to reduce emissions, but these days also the need to avoid paying too much in the carbon price.
2. Narratives
Once the drivers have been identified, come up with a few key Narratives. Each of these narratives should tell a story about what a possible future looks like. It should be straightforward to read and be used to coordinate the assumptions and elements that make up the rest of the scenario. One common example of a narrative is, “What if we replaced all of our diesel generators with solar in the next three years?”
3. Events
From each narrative, look at what events could happen, and how they are interlinked. Events to focus in on may be interrelated – i.e. causal links, but also events that may be one-offs but have a major impact. For carbon reduction narratives, a key event is supply chain disruptions when attempting to construct renewable energy sources. These disruptions can have long-lasting impacts that flow on to other areas of the organisation that need to be carefully considered.
4. Impacts
Impacts are what we expect to happen because of each event. Carbon Scenarios usually end up modelling some combination of financial impact (e.g. pay a lot of money for carbon credits) or social impact (e.g. social license to operate). These impacts can also be positive – for example, by implementing a solar facility successfully, the saving on carbon-intensive energy also applies to the fuel commodity as well as the carbon offsets.
5. Data
Finally, a good scenario always contains a lot of data, which can include both external and internal sources, but not just hard numbers – soft data, like environmental analysis, is equally as important to crafting a robust scenario.
At Greenbase, our Environmental Specialists are dedicated to guiding you in crafting well-modelled carbon scenarios to navigate challenges and seize opportunities in your journey towards decarbonisation.
To learn more, book a free demo with one of our experts today: https://www.greenbase.com.au/envago-carbon
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